Alious**The Numbers Behind Sunderland’s Slump: Why Le Bris’ Men Are Struggling to Score**
Sunderland’s recent dip in form can largely be captured through a sobering statistical lens. On Tuesday night, the Black Cats salvaged a late point in a lackluster 1-1 draw against Bristol City at the Stadium of Light. While it was a small reprieve, it highlighted a broader trend: Sunderland have managed just one win in their last eight games, dating back to the start of November.
This downturn has seen them slip from the Championship summit, and the reasons are varied. Injuries, fatigue, and the relentless competitiveness of the division all bear some responsibility. However, a clear pattern has emerged: Sunderland’s cutting-edge in front of goal has dulled significantly compared to their electric start to the season.
### From Clinical to Wasteful
During their first 12 matches of the season, Sunderland consistently exceeded their expected goals (xG) tally, often converting more chances than the numbers suggested. For example, in a win against Luton Town, they scored twice from an xG of 0.7. This clinical efficiency propelled them to the top of the table.
But since a 0-0 draw with QPR marked the start of their recent run, the trend has reversed. In six of their last eight matches, Sunderland have failed to meet their xG. The 2-2 draw against Coventry City last month was one of the rare exceptions. Even in their win over Stoke City, Sunderland underperformed, scoring twice from an xG of 2.4.
The gaps are stark. In their 1-0 loss to Sheffield United, they missed chances that amounted to an xG of 1.7. Similarly, the draw against Bristol City saw them score once despite an xG of 1.5—more than enough to win, considering the visitors managed just 0.5.
### Shots Without Reward
The stats paint an even bleaker picture when simplified. Over the last eight matches, Sunderland have scored just six goals from 115 shots, a rate of just 0.75 goals per game, down from 1.9 earlier in the season. Whether viewed through the prism of xG or raw conversion rates, the wastefulness is evident and concerning.
### The Low Block Challenge
The issue isn’t solely about misfiring strikers or missed opportunities. As Sunderland’s style of play has become more familiar to opponents, teams are increasingly setting up in defensive low blocks to frustrate their attacks. This tactical shift has forced Sunderland to work harder for clear chances, with some outstanding saves and poorly timed missed penalties adding to their struggles.
### What Comes Next?
If Sunderland are serious about mounting a genuine promotion challenge, solving their attacking inefficiencies is essential. A haul of just nine points from the last 24 available simply won’t be enough to keep pace with the division’s frontrunners.
While there are no quick fixes, Regis Le Bris and his staff must find ways to break down stubborn defenses and rekindle the clinical edge that defined their early-season success. Getting back to scoring consistently would go a long way toward putting their campaign back on track.
Alious
