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Daniel Farke is once again being asked to prove the doubters wrong as Leeds United prepare for a daunting trip to face Sunderland, with data analysts Opta backing the home side to come out on top.
Leeds arrive at the Stadium of Light in their strongest run of the season so far, having collected eight points from their last four Premier League matches. That upturn in form came at a crucial moment for Farke, who had been under serious pressure following a difficult spell that raised questions about his long-term future at the club.
Remarkably, Leeds entered each of those recent fixtures as underdogs, yet managed to grind out results and steady their campaign. Now, they are chasing a rare milestone: their first away league win against Sunderland since 2002, a match remembered for James Milner’s first senior goal in a 2–1 victory.
However, history and statistics are not in Leeds’ favour. Opta’s latest projections suggest the odds are stacked against Farke’s side once again. Despite Leeds’ recent revival, the analytics firm gives them just a 26.8% chance of winning on Wearside, with a draw rated at 26.3%.
Sunderland, under Regis Le Bris, are strongly fancied to take all three points. Opta assigns the Black Cats a 46.9% probability of victory, which would mark their eighth win of the season and further underline their impressive return to the top flight.
Leeds’ only away success so far this campaign came against bottom-of-the-table Wolves, a game in which Dominic Calvert-Lewin opened his goalscoring account for the club. Replicating that performance will not be easy, especially against a Sunderland side that has been difficult to break down at home.
One of the key obstacles Leeds must overcome is Sunderland goalkeeper Robin Roefs, who has made an outstanding start since joining the club. According to FotMob data, Roefs has saved 77.3% of the shots he has faced this season — the second-highest success rate in the league, behind only Aston Villa’s Emi Martínez.
While Leeds goalkeeper Lucas Perri is beginning to settle, Roefs’ form has been central to Sunderland’s strong defensive record. The duel between Roefs and an in-form Calvert-Lewin could prove decisive in shaping the outcome.
There is, however, a small boost for Farke in Opta’s broader predictions. The same model previously made Crystal Palace favourites to beat Leeds at Elland Road — a game the Whites went on to defy expectations in. If Leeds are to leave Sunderland with a result, they will once again need to overcome both the statistics and the odds stacked against them.
Alious
